Up & Down February 22, 2010
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Well this weekend was one of ups and downs. My treble bet was well and truly blown out of the water with just 1 from 3 coming in whilst the trixie romped home last night with Aston Villa winning 5-2 over Burnley.
Life got in the way of betting / trading on Saturday but i was back to it yesterday trading 2 games for a healthy profit. This was unfortunately offset by the performance of my 0-0 1-1 score bets. Sods law the first time i put some money on this it is just in time to catch the poorest day since i started researching!!
I also signed up for the Sports Betting Professor this week, 4 bets so far and just the one loss meaning that todays bet is a B bet according to the system. Again starting with small stakes on this one but the reviews i have read on several sites give me hope that this will be a profitable system.
In case there is anyone actually reading this, i will be travelling to Germany on Tuesday night so there wont be any updates until next week.
The weekend is finally here! February 19, 2010
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Wow, this week seemed to go on forever! But i made it and it is time to turn my attention to the weekends football.
I have decided to take the plunge with my 0-0 & 1-1 correct score bets, small stakes at first, but the research so far seems to indicate that this will be profitable.
Onto my usual weekend threesomes, lets hope for another good result here.
Trixie – Dortmund, Aston Villa, Colchester
Treble – Newcastle, Rotherham, Zulte-Waregem
Good luck to all.
Quick Update February 15, 2010
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What a great weekend!
Both the trixie and treble bets came in giving me a healthy profit and more than making up for last weekends miserable performance.
I traded 3 matches on Sunday and came away with a small profit, the 3rd match had to trade out of for a loss and this combined with the fact i have been taking a cautious approach to the games i trade even when things are going my way meant the loss had a big impact. Its all about reducing liability though and a profit is still a profit.
My research into betting on the correct score 0-0 & 1-1 is going well, only 1 day has shown a small loss all others a healthy profit. Yesterday had 14 selections generating 2 x 0-0 and 4 x 1-1 scorelines and what would have been a very healthy profit. I may consider backing next weeks selections to small stakes whilst this system seems to be working.
Weekend Selections February 12, 2010
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Here is this weekends “threesomes”
Trixie – Alloa, AC Milan, Braga
Treble – Groningen, Montpellier, Millwall
Heres hoping for better than last week!
A lull in proceedings February 10, 2010
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As i had thought i did’nt get a chance to trade this past weekend. I had researched the games available to trade and come up with a list of games for both Saturday and Sunday, however after playing golf on Saturday a few of us headed out for some beers instead and on arriving at the hotel in Singapore on Sunday i checked my email only to discover that i was expected to provide a presentation the following morning….nothing quite like short notice!
My Trixie and Treble bets failed last weekend, although 2 out of 3 of the games came in on the trixie so minimising my losses. Early days yet on trying to find a profitable system on betting on the 0-0 & 1-1 outcomes, but some very interesting data already. Upto and including the data from the games last night all 4 levels of filters are profitable, however i am now going to add in data for 1-0 & 0-1 scores as the highest level of filter was 6 of 6 across these 4 scorelines.
Thats all for now folks!
Limited Opportunities February 5, 2010
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I hope everyone has had a good week whatever you have been upto.
Im not sure how much trading i will get in this weekend, if any. I am taking part in a golf competition on Saturday afternoon so trading on Saturday night will depend on what time i get home and how i feel after 18 holes in 30c plus! Sunday i have to fly over to Singapore to attend a meeting so any trading will depend on the internet connection being available and reliable!
I have yet to get around to talking about any of the other bets i make, i usually try to find a treble and a trixie to place on the weekends. I have an acount with William Hill so i just use this and really this is a bit of fun for me rather than taking it too seriously. Anyway if you want to have a bash, or just laugh when i fail miserably!! here are this weekends bets. All are home wins.
Trixie – Oxford, Trabzonspor, Ath Bilbao 3.32
Treble – N. Forest, AFC Wimbledon, Mansfield. 3.48
I have been exploring other opportunites this week, when i am looking for games to trade in i am looking for games with a high probability of no draw and lots of goals. So it occured to me that maybe there is an opportunity in the games i would not find suitable for trading. So for this month i will begin paper trading a system to try and see if i can be profitable in the 0-0, 1-1 correct score markets. I am looking at games in 11 Leagues and have decided to separate my selections into 4 tiers of increasing filters. The top one having only 6 selections this weekend from 11 leagues. I will let you know how things are getting on as the month progresses.
Going back to my trading, when i prepare i write out a sheet of data for each match. Part of which is the goals by 15 minute period. I find this useful if i am undecided about trading a match and find out that a large portion of goals are scored late in the games meaning i could have to trade out for a loss before goals are scored (assuming things go by the data!). As an examplet St. Pauli, riding high in the German 2nd division scored 21 of their 45 goals in the last 30 minutes whislt Paderborn have score 70% of their goals in the 1st half but none between the 46th & 60th minute.
Anyway, to get to the point, each game i consider requires me to go back over previous games collating goal time data which can be time consuming. I am developing a spreadsheet where i can enter goals for & against in a grid after each round of games and a summary sheet will show me home, away and full data by team. The sheet has been designed for leagues of upto 24 teams and is generic and only requires you to enter the team names once and then just keep it upto date each week. If you would like a copy let me know.
January Review February 1, 2010
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Can you believe that January has already gone? I think it is certainly true that time seems to go by quicker as you get older.
Well my first month of trading has now finished, ok I only started trading on Jan 10th, but with the winter weather in the UK and the mid-season breaks around Europe I don’t think there would have been many more games to trade even if i had started on the 1st Jan.
So, how have things gone?
Firstly, i made a profit, a little profit but still a profit! I would have settled for that when i started. I had a really bad day a couple of weeks ago where I had 4 losing trades costing me 193.91. The most annoying being the Schalke game, which in was loss of 59.00 but in reality this is swing of around 89,00 as I could have traded out earlier and greened up.
I have been a bit more cautious since then, looking to green up and get out sooner rather than later. This probably costs me some profit but is reducing the big swings as mentioned above. That being said I have still managed to pick 3 more 0-0 games. Thats 5 in total over the last 2 weeks. I took a look over my match selection and looked back at the games i had picked successfully using my selection criteria and can’t see too much wrong at the moment. I will continue to monitor this and am always looking for ways to improve my selection process. It is clear that this is not a method to make money overnight so it would be rash of me to be changing things based on less than a full months data.
Speaking of selection criteria, i was wondering what other people use? (assuming anyone is reading this!!) I look at the following. Form & goals for and against for Last 6, last 6 Home/Away, season Home/Away. Previous results between the 2 teams complete and for the corresponding fixture. Timing of goals scored and conceded. Probability or H/D/A and the Over/Under for 2.5 goals on BetDevil. So if you are reading this, and you thinking i am missing something then please leave a comment!!
Apart from trading, work is very busy, although it looks like i will be moving on from Indonesia in the next few months although i have no idea yet as to where that will be. Played golf on Sunday and won the tournament, gross 90, nett 64. best i have played ever and sure to lower my handicap!
Well that’s enough for now. Best of luck to you all for February.
Simply Shocking! January 24, 2010
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Well, I don’t know if I tempted fate or annoyed the gods with my comments about not having picked a draw yet because that all changed on Saturday.
After a great evening of trading last Sunday I was confident heading into last nights trades that another good profit lay ahead. How wrong I was. Take a look
Sunday 17th Jan
Augsburg v Cottbus (German 2nd) +21.85
Duisburg v FSV Frankfurt (German 2nd) +24.76
Standard Liege v Anderlecht (Belgium) +16.15
Fiorentina v Bologna (Serie A) +17.10
Schalke v Nuremberg (Bundesliga) +16.15
Saturday 23rd Jan
St Pauli v Aachen (German 2nd) +16.15
Kaiserslauten v Ahlen (German 2nd) -54.06
VFL Bochum v Schalke (Bundesliga) - 59.00
Cessena v Gallipoli (Italy 2nd) -33.35
Rangers v Hearts (SPL) - 47.50
Week P/L: -80.42
Total P/L: +7.16
From the 5 games I traded yesterday, 4 ended in draws, 2 of them 0-0. Not much I can do there but trade out and take the loss. The Rangers game I was already out of before the red card and the first goal so again had to take a loss. The game I am most annoyed about is the Schalke game, they were 2-0 up until the 75th minute, I had plenty of time to green up but left the bet open and boy did it hurt when Bochum equalised at the death!
I will re-check my selection process for the games yesterday and compare them to previous games, although i am fairly sure this wont uncover anything. With regards to the Schalke game, I know this was a bit of the gambler in me and also the 0-0 in the Kaiserslauten game (my first loss) playing on my mind, so that is something I will need to address.
Busy week for me coming up, flying to Surabaya and Jogjakarta this week and golf next Saturday and Sunday. Next weekends games will be the end of January so will probably include today’s trades with next weekends and wrap up the month in 1 hit.
Quick update January 18, 2010
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I had planned on only updating here once a week but decided to provide a quick update on yesterdays trading, and what a fantastic day it was. Plenty more learnt and more money earned. All 5 games i traded resulted in a profit totalling 97.34. More pleasing was the fact that the average earned per game is up almost 5 pounds on the first week average.
Already looking forward to this weekends matches!!
First week completed! January 17, 2010
Posted by Thirsty in Uncategorized.Tags: P&L, Trading Results, Weekly P&L
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Well my first 7 days of trading are now behind me. Plenty of lessons learnt but no losses during the week. I traded in 7 games during the week which you can see below.
Hercules v Cartagena (Spain 2nd) = +13.30
Genoa v Catania (Serie A) = +28.50
Malawi v Algeria (ANC) = +5.70
Rot Wiess Ahlen v St. Pauli (German 2nd) = 0.00
G Furth v Kaiserslauten (German 2nd) = +17.10
Frankfurt v W Bremen (Bundesliga) = +11.68
Mgladbach v Bochum (Bundesliga) = +11.30
Total P/L = +87.58
It’s great that I didn’t incur any losses during my first week, however i am aware these are bound to come along. I am very happy with the matches I am picking, in fact had I layed them all and then went and watched a DVD or gone to bed I would have actually had a greater profit as there was not a single draw among them, from what I am seeing the stats seem to be more accurate if the Favourite takes the lead and go out the window if the underdog scores first.
I screwed up on the Malawi Algeria game, backing the draw with Malawi 2 up rather than laying Malawi. I need to find a balance between going with my statistics and what is actually happening in the game. That being said i am following a specific system and i need to get a lot more experience behind me before i try tweaking things!
Early days, but lots of positives to take from the first week and, of course, plenty to still learn.
Already had a look at today’s games and there should be a few that will pass closer inspection and be suitable to trade. Good luck today if you are trading or just having a bet.
